Can someone explain the roster update?
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@tngu834_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
I don't really understand the roster updates this year. It used to be really slow since they weigh the past three years performance. Maybe something is weird with their stats modeling because last year was a shortened season. Vlad Jr going from 75-85 in one and a half month. They could have changed the stats modeling altogether this year and Vlad being a diamond would make sense.
I could be wrong but I swear I heard they’re doing upgrades based on current year. No more 3 year average
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Usually you can dig into advanced statistics and find your answer. Obviously, there will always be some outliers that SDS seems slow on that they likely are waiting on a larger sample size for, however, I do agree that Bryant got snubbed in this past update. That's not to say that I think he deserved an outright upgrade all the way to diamond status just for the sake of how he is playing so far through this season but he deserved more of a boost than he got.
So with that said, lets break down the numbers in comparison to his current attributes...
Bryant vs. LHP - Bryant has been a notoriously great hitter against left-handed pitching pretty much since he came into the Majors. This season has been no different as through his first 49 plate-appearances, he has a line of .429 AVG .510 OBP .976 SLG with 6 homeruns, 5 doubles and an OPS of 1.486. This should translate to some impressive ratings against lefties in The Show and with 116 contact and 95 power, I'd say that he's where he should be.
Bryant vs. RHP - While we've shown that Bryant is a well-known lefty-killer at the plate, his career numbers versus righties come in a bit worse, but still overall impressive with a career total batting-line of .275 (AVG) .371 (OBP) .488 (SLG) and an OPS at .859. His 2021 season is sitting at a nearly identical .282/.367/.473 line, so with 70 contact and 69 power versus right-handed pitching you're probably thinking that there's no doubt about it, SDS messed this one up. Well, let me show you Bryant's 2020 stats versus RHP: In 112 PA / 103 AB, Bryant put up a batting line of .184/.250/.340 with an OPS of .590 after only hitting 4 homeruns the entire season (with zero vs. lefties) and you begin to see why Bryant's ratings versus righties remain a bit subpar.
Was 2020 a small sample size? Absolutely. Should SDS weigh that against Bryant so heavily? No, I don't think so. But will they? Yeah, more than likely they will until he sustains the success he has been having this year. While it has been said that SDS goes by a "three-year average" against the backdrop of a player's career, 2020 was roughly about one-third of a usual full-season so it's possible that 2018 numbers are still creeping into the weighted statistics that go towards a player's ratings in the game right now. If that's the case, Bryant also struggled in 2018 with a batting-line versus righties of .244/.363/.386 and an OPS of .749.
I think all of that data kind of explains why Bryant's overall hasn't gone up to where some folks were thinking it would by now. It's exactly why when I did my research when doing my investments for the 5/28/2021 Roster Update, I didn't buy any stock into Kris Bryant. That said, if he continues at his current pace, he will no doubt be a diamond before long. I just think SDS wanted to see a bit more before pulling the trigger, especially with five new Live Series diamonds being made in this update. Hopefully this provided you with some comfort and understanding, and moving forward I would suggest that you keep this set of standards in mind whenever you're projecting who will go up in the future.
As for anyone who invested in a large quantity of Kris Bryant, I think the obvious thing to do is just hold steady. Bryant is a special player and the further he gets away from his 2018 and 2020 struggles, the more you'll see Bryant return to his past status of being considered one of the best players in the sport today, both in the media and in The Show itself.
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If you think that’s bad altuve literally had a 16 game hit streak and played great defense and he didn’t get an upgrade at all.
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@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
Well, it doesn’t always make sense. But they go off of the players WAR rating. Muncy makes sense without a doubt. But Olson doesn’t. Not over Bryant.
Bryan Reynolds is at 2 WAR on pace for around a 6 WAR season and is at 6.4 WAR over the last 3 years and is stuck at 76 overall.
Nick senzel is at -.2 WAR and -.5 WAR over his career and is a 77.
If anyone can explain that one be my guest.
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@bodamescapeplan said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
Usually you can dig into advanced statistics and find your answer. Obviously, there will always be some outliers that SDS seems slow on that they likely are waiting on a larger sample size for, however, I do agree that Bryant got snubbed in this past update. That's not to say that I think he deserved an outright upgrade all the way to diamond status just for the sake of how he is playing so far through this season but he deserved more of a boost than he got.
So with that said, lets break down the numbers in comparison to his current attributes...
Bryant vs. LHP - Bryant has been a notoriously great hitter against left-handed pitching pretty much since he came into the Majors. This season has been no different as through his first 49 plate-appearances, he has a line of .429 AVG .510 OBP .976 SLG with 6 homeruns, 5 doubles and an OPS of 1.486. This should translate to some impressive ratings against lefties in The Show and with 116 contact and 95 power, I'd say that he's where he should be.
Bryant vs. RHP - While we've shown that Bryant is a well-known lefty-killer at the plate, his career numbers versus righties come in a bit worse, but still overall impressive with a career total batting-line of .275 (AVG) .371 (OBP) .488 (SLG) and an OPS at .859. His 2021 season is sitting at a nearly identical .282/.367/.473 line, so with 70 contact and 69 power versus right-handed pitching you're probably thinking that there's no doubt about it, SDS messed this one up. Well, let me show you Bryant's 2020 stats versus RHP: In 112 PA / 103 AB, Bryant put up a batting line of .184/.250/.340 with an OPS of .590 after only hitting 4 homeruns the entire season (with zero vs. lefties) and you begin to see why Bryant's ratings versus righties remain a bit subpar.
Was 2020 a small sample size? Absolutely. Should SDS weigh that against Bryant so heavily? No, I don't think so. But will they? Yeah, more than likely they will until he sustains the success he has been having this year. While it has been said that SDS goes by a "three-year average" against the backdrop of a player's career, 2020 was roughly about one-third of a usual full-season so it's possible that 2018 numbers are still creeping into the weighted statistics that go towards a player's ratings in the game right now. If that's the case, Bryant also struggled in 2018 with a batting-line versus righties of .244/.363/.386 and an OPS of .749.
I think all of that data kind of explains why Bryant's overall hasn't gone up to where some folks were thinking it would by now. It's exactly why when I did my research when doing my investments for the 5/28/2021 Roster Update, I didn't buy any stock into Kris Bryant. That said, if he continues at his current pace, he will no doubt be a diamond before long. I just think SDS wanted to see a bit more before pulling the trigger, especially with five new Live Series diamonds being made in this update. Hopefully this provided you with some comfort and understanding, and moving forward I would suggest that you keep this set of standards in mind whenever you're projecting who will go up in the future.
As for anyone who invested in a large quantity of Kris Bryant, I think the obvious thing to do is just hold steady. Bryant is a special player and the further he gets away from his 2018 and 2020 struggles, the more you'll see Bryant return to his past status of being considered one of the best players in the sport today, both in the media and in The Show itself.
I mean this is all great, but there is no consistency. Muncy was [censored] last year but that isn’t impacting him.
Vlad was the definition of mediocre his first two years but now is a diamond?
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@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@vipersneak_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
Well, it doesn’t always make sense. But they go off of the players WAR rating. Muncy makes sense without a doubt. But Olson doesn’t. Not over Bryant.
Do they? Tatis and KB have the same WAR. Tatis was a diamond already and went up 2. In fact KB and Tatis have similar stats all around, including defense.
I agree. Which is why I said “well, it doesn’t always make sense.” They pick and choose, but sometimes we’re left puzzled. KB should be a diamond. Why is Alex Reyes a 69 bronze still.. who knows
Justice for Reyes! Man should at least be a silver. He walks folks yes, but he is still one of the more dominant closers in the game now.
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@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@tngu834_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
I don't really understand the roster updates this year. It used to be really slow since they weigh the past three years performance. Maybe something is weird with their stats modeling because last year was a shortened season. Vlad Jr going from 75-85 in one and a half month. They could have changed the stats modeling altogether this year and Vlad being a diamond would make sense.
I could be wrong but I swear I heard they’re doing upgrades based on current year. No more 3 year average
They make updates to accommodate the market, a lot of times if they see many have invested in 84s knocking on diamond they wont upgrade them (cough cough Lynn). And with the 650 LS diamond they make adjustments so you can profit too much, like they made Nado a 90 again when there wasn't much of a change in his performance the last 2 weeks for the most part.
Cant get TOO much, they want you to buy buy buy stubs!
Basically these bozo devs have no integrity
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@locutusofburg said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
Well, it doesn’t always make sense. But they go off of the players WAR rating. Muncy makes sense without a doubt. But Olson doesn’t. Not over Bryant.
Bryan Reynolds is at 2 WAR on pace for around a 6 WAR season and is at 6.4 WAR over the last 3 years and is stuck at 76 overall.
Nick senzel is at -.2 WAR and -.5 WAR over his career and is a 77.
If anyone can explain that one be my guest.
I hear you brother. Senzel should’ve been rated a little bit lower from the start of the show 21 I think. Reynolds career to this point has been better than Senzel too. But it goes to show us all that the ratings they give out and the way they upgrade aren’t perfect. I’m saying they go by WAR alot but it’s not everything to them. Olson is a perfect example when compared to Bryant.
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@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@tngu834_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
I don't really understand the roster updates this year. It used to be really slow since they weigh the past three years performance. Maybe something is weird with their stats modeling because last year was a shortened season. Vlad Jr going from 75-85 in one and a half month. They could have changed the stats modeling altogether this year and Vlad being a diamond would make sense.
I could be wrong but I swear I heard they’re doing upgrades based on current year. No more 3 year average
Can you provide a reliable source for that? They have always done a three year average with the current year weighing more heavily than the previous 2 years.
Yes, sometimes the updates are confusing but so many people just point to the current year stats and ignore everything else. They compare players at different positions. Third basemen are rated differently than 1st basemen who are rated differently than Shortstops or Center Fielders. And nobody ever takes fielding into account.
You can look at Batting Average and ERA all day long but they don't mean a lot in end. Contact vs Righties and lefties, power vs righties and lefties, walks, strikeouts all play into the rating. I am not sure RBI's count for anything except maybe clutch? And as I said, nobody ever looks at fielding. Fielding is probably more of a factor at third base than it is at first.
Bryant started the season at an 80 I believe and he has been upgraded twice to get to 82. He is heading in the right direction but a 5 point jump doesn't usually happen in one update. Bryant may very well deserve a diamond, but telling me he is hitting .320 with 11 homers and 32 RBIs is not nearly enough to convince me
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@bodamescapeplan said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
Usually you can dig into advanced statistics and find your answer. Obviously, there will always be some outliers that SDS seems slow on that they likely are waiting on a larger sample size for, however, I do agree that Bryant got snubbed in this past update. That's not to say that I think he deserved an outright upgrade all the way to diamond status just for the sake of how he is playing so far through this season but he deserved more of a boost than he got.
So with that said, lets break down the numbers in comparison to his current attributes...
Bryant vs. LHP - Bryant has been a notoriously great hitter against left-handed pitching pretty much since he came into the Majors. This season has been no different as through his first 49 plate-appearances, he has a line of .429 AVG .510 OBP .976 SLG with 6 homeruns, 5 doubles and an OPS of 1.486. This should translate to some impressive ratings against lefties in The Show and with 116 contact and 95 power, I'd say that he's where he should be.
Bryant vs. RHP - While we've shown that Bryant is a well-known lefty-killer at the plate, his career numbers versus righties come in a bit worse, but still overall impressive with a career total batting-line of .275 (AVG) .371 (OBP) .488 (SLG) and an OPS at .859. His 2021 season is sitting at a nearly identical .282/.367/.473 line, so with 70 contact and 69 power versus right-handed pitching you're probably thinking that there's no doubt about it, SDS messed this one up. Well, let me show you Bryant's 2020 stats versus RHP: In 112 PA / 103 AB, Bryant put up a batting line of .184/.250/.340 with an OPS of .590 after only hitting 4 homeruns the entire season (with zero vs. lefties) and you begin to see why Bryant's ratings versus righties remain a bit subpar.
Was 2020 a small sample size? Absolutely. Should SDS weigh that against Bryant so heavily? No, I don't think so. But will they? Yeah, more than likely they will until he sustains the success he has been having this year. While it has been said that SDS goes by a "three-year average" against the backdrop of a player's career, 2020 was roughly about one-third of a usual full-season so it's possible that 2018 numbers are still creeping into the weighted statistics that go towards a player's ratings in the game right now. If that's the case, Bryant also struggled in 2018 with a batting-line versus righties of .244/.363/.386 and an OPS of .749.
I think all of that data kind of explains why Bryant's overall hasn't gone up to where some folks were thinking it would by now. It's exactly why when I did my research when doing my investments for the 5/28/2021 Roster Update, I didn't buy any stock into Kris Bryant. That said, if he continues at his current pace, he will no doubt be a diamond before long. I just think SDS wanted to see a bit more before pulling the trigger, especially with five new Live Series diamonds being made in this update. Hopefully this provided you with some comfort and understanding, and moving forward I would suggest that you keep this set of standards in mind whenever you're projecting who will go up in the future.
As for anyone who invested in a large quantity of Kris Bryant, I think the obvious thing to do is just hold steady. Bryant is a special player and the further he gets away from his 2018 and 2020 struggles, the more you'll see Bryant return to his past status of being considered one of the best players in the sport today, both in the media and in The Show itself.
While I agree with most of that, you left out 2019. And that was a full season. Plus not only was 2020 a half season, but he was injured for half of that. Injured in 2018 as well, so he had fewer AB's. They definitely shouldn't just use seasons, but total AB's in their calculations. Bryant has a .900 lifetime OPS. Vlad Jr has never been over .900 OPS once yet (although he does so far this season). If a 3 year avg is being used, no way Jr should be a diamond.
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@doihearbossmusic said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@vipersneak_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
@ttv_bloopnablast_psn said in Can someone explain the roster update?:
Well, it doesn’t always make sense. But they go off of the players WAR rating. Muncy makes sense without a doubt. But Olson doesn’t. Not over Bryant.
Do they? Tatis and KB have the same WAR. Tatis was a diamond already and went up 2. In fact KB and Tatis have similar stats all around, including defense.
I agree. Which is why I said “well, it doesn’t always make sense.” They pick and choose, but sometimes we’re left puzzled. KB should be a diamond. Why is Alex Reyes a 69 bronze still.. who knows
Justice for Reyes! Man should at least be a silver. He walks folks yes, but he is still one of the more dominant closers in the game now.
I hate facing Reyes in the Show. I don't know why but I can't hit the guy.
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