Perfect/Perfect statistics
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Last year we all gave SDS a hard time on the outcome of perfect input for our hitting. Regardless of the statistics they gave us of an ~.850 batting average on perfect swings, and only a 2% chance foul ball (now 1% for this year), that never seemed to be the case. So this year, I decided to track my first 100 perfect input swings and see how many hits, outs, and foul balls occurred.
These statistics come only from online play (BR and Ranked Seasons) and they are very basic statistics. On balls in play with perfect input I was 79-100. That is, obviously, a .790 batting average, which is well below the .850 that we were told by the development team. I also hit 11 foul balls with perfect input, which is a 9.9% foul rate on perfect input (11-111), much higher than the claimed 1% for this year.
I'm already in the process of tracking my next 100 perfect swings in much greater depth, accounting for type of perfect swing (grounder, liner, flyball), the result, whether it was a single, double, triple or HR, etc.
What are your thoughts on these statistics? Does it make sense to hit under .800 on perfect input? And is there anything else I should be tracking on these perfect input swings?
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Okay. I’m going to have some fun (check out my name).
If we assume SDS is telling the truth, you statistic of 0.79 would produce a z score of
Z = (0.79 - 0.85)/sqrt(.85*.15/100) = -1.68
At that value, the chances of you getting a 79% hit rate or less would be around a 4.65% probability.
In other words you have a 5% chance of being that “unlucky.”
Now you do with that what you will. I’m not trying to be argumentative. Just adding a little context. I also do pack probabilities if you’re interested.
Please share more data, because now I’m curious.
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@mathman5072_psn said in Perfect/Perfect statistics:
Okay. I’m going to have some fun (check out my name).
If we assume SDS is telling the truth, you statistic of 0.79 would produce a z score of
Z = (0.79 - 0.85)/sqrt(.85*.15/100) = -1.68
At that value, the chances of you getting a 79% hit rate or less would be around a 4.65% probability.
In other words you have a 5% chance of being that “unlucky.”
Now you do with that what you will. I’m not trying to be argumentative. Just adding a little context. I also do pack probabilities if you’re interested.
Please share more data, because now I’m curious.
That's good to know! A group of my friends actually give each other a hard time and say, "Tom gets all the luck, so you got to be the unlucky one!" lol. I will continue to provide statistics at 100 AB intervals!
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@jholla31_psn said in Perfect/Perfect statistics:
Last year we all gave SDS a hard time on the outcome of perfect input for our hitting. Regardless of the statistics they gave us of an ~.850 batting average on perfect swings, and only a 2% chance foul ball (now 1% for this year), that never seemed to be the case. So this year, I decided to track my first 100 perfect input swings and see how many hits, outs, and foul balls occurred.
These statistics come only from online play (BR and Ranked Seasons) and they are very basic statistics. On balls in play with perfect input I was 79-100. That is, obviously, a .790 batting average, which is well below the .850 that we were told by the development team. I also hit 11 foul balls with perfect input, which is a 9.9% foul rate on perfect input (11-111), much higher than the claimed 1% for this year.
I'm already in the process of tracking my next 100 perfect swings in much greater depth, accounting for type of perfect swing (grounder, liner, flyball), the result, whether it was a single, double, triple or HR, etc.
What are your thoughts on these statistics? Does it make sense to hit under .800 on perfect input? And is there anything else I should be tracking on these perfect input swings?
You should include all perfect/perfects no matter the game mode. Separate them if you will, but those numbers should also be included. From my time playing this year so far, human opponents pitch far more down the middle than even the cpu on rookie.
All games/modes combined I am generous in saying I'm batting .500 on perfect/perfect swings.
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@warpedzilla_psn said in Perfect/Perfect statistics:
@jholla31_psn said in Perfect/Perfect statistics:
Last year we all gave SDS a hard time on the outcome of perfect input for our hitting. Regardless of the statistics they gave us of an ~.850 batting average on perfect swings, and only a 2% chance foul ball (now 1% for this year), that never seemed to be the case. So this year, I decided to track my first 100 perfect input swings and see how many hits, outs, and foul balls occurred.
These statistics come only from online play (BR and Ranked Seasons) and they are very basic statistics. On balls in play with perfect input I was 79-100. That is, obviously, a .790 batting average, which is well below the .850 that we were told by the development team. I also hit 11 foul balls with perfect input, which is a 9.9% foul rate on perfect input (11-111), much higher than the claimed 1% for this year.
I'm already in the process of tracking my next 100 perfect swings in much greater depth, accounting for type of perfect swing (grounder, liner, flyball), the result, whether it was a single, double, triple or HR, etc.
What are your thoughts on these statistics? Does it make sense to hit under .800 on perfect input? And is there anything else I should be tracking on these perfect input swings?
You should include all perfect/perfects no matter the game mode. Separate them if you will, but those numbers should also be included. From my time playing this year so far, human opponents pitch far more down the middle than even the cpu on rookie.
All games/modes combined I am generous in saying I'm batting .500 on perfect/perfect swings.
I'm more interested in online statistics as I don't usually have a difficult time beating the CPU even if my perfects aren't falling, but, at your wishes, I'll start tracking my offline numbers too, in a separate category.
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