I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.
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The Idea
So I've been playing a ton of showdown (almost done every AL affinity). But I wanted to try something new.I realized that my success on drag bunts felt like 65%. Granted, I only drag bunt with 85+ speed guys and higher and I never do it with two strikes.
But in theory you only need success about 48% of the time drag bunting to win a showdown (that's assuming 14 hits, 13 will score and 1 more hit to advance the winning run, in theory you could also use outs to advance the winning run.)
If you are able to win exclusively on 13 hits using productive outs for your last run, you only need a 44.8% success rate to beat the showdown.
It also keeps you out of the double play, which is statistically, a huge showdown-killer. Not only does it remove 2 valuable outs when you need to score almost a run per out, it also basically removes a baserunner that could be a run.
The Plan
The goal was obviously to get the fastest possible lineup with a few exceptions. All my batters had 68+ speed I believe except for Khris Davis, who I planned to swing away with.Now I have to be honest, I didn't entirely bunt. But I bunted on a vast majority of ABs. Here are the exceptions when I swung normally:
- 2 strike counts, where a foul bunt would result in an out
- Khris Davis at the plate (he has 33 speed lol)
- 42 Kyle Lewis at the plate (75 speed but low bunt stats, felt more valuable to swing away)
- Bases loaded ABs (sometimes)
Other than these situations, I bunted almost every single AB. The idea of this was to make sure I was giving myself the best odds to stay above that 45% success mark. If I was bunting with 2 strikes all the time, or bunting with low speed hitters, my success rate would drop drastically.
And now for the part you've been waiting for... the results.
The Results
SUCCESS! Not only did I win. I won easily. I had 2 outs remaining (and I used 2 outs just to advance the winning run). This was with Khris Davis going 0-2 and grounding into a DP, meaning if I would have replaced him for someone with mid 50s-60s speed I would have won easily, even had his bunting success been something like 1 for 3. I also had 1 extra runner on base when I won who could have scored had I gotten a hit in the next AB.Stats
Bunt Success
10/17 (1 advance on K)Non-Bunt Success
4/10 (2B, Grand Slam, GIDP)My success rate on bunts when using slower guys is 59% now, way better than I expected. If you count the dropped third strike where Robert reached, it was 64%, but that shouldn't count because it's an out most of the time.
Granted I also hit .400 with a Grand Slam (.363 if we count the backwards progress from the DP) but this was still significantly lower than my bunt hit rate.
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uploading a video if anyone wants to see/try it. Took under 20 mins, going to test it again
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Id like to see the video. Good stuff man
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Yeah I'd be interested in seeing this work
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Video is processing rn
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@cmurduh_psn said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
Id like to see the video. Good stuff man
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGEvflP8oK0
Here's the video, I recommend watching in 2 or 4x speed.
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Just did it again, 3 outs remaining. I'm 2/3 on this so far, but it does seem considerably quicker than regular showdowns even if you fail 2/5 times.
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@kdclemson_psn said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
Just did it again, 3 outs remaining. I'm 2/3 on this so far, but it does seem considerably quicker than regular showdowns even if you fail 2/5 times.
Did you do this ‘method’ for most of your run to 50 showdowns complete?
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@csmith1033_xbl said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
@kdclemson_psn said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
Just did it again, 3 outs remaining. I'm 2/3 on this so far, but it does seem considerably quicker than regular showdowns even if you fail 2/5 times.
Did you do this ‘method’ for most of your run to 50 showdowns complete?
Nope, found it to be inconsistent. Works maybe 45% of the time with good non-bunt hitting and RNG.
What I instead did is I’d take 2-3 85+ speed guys in the order and always drag bunt when they come up. Helps avoid double plays primarily but also is usually an equal or higher success rate than regular hitting.
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Please delete.... don’t need SDS patching this
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@kdclemson_psn said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
@csmith1033_xbl said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
@kdclemson_psn said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
Just did it again, 3 outs remaining. I'm 2/3 on this so far, but it does seem considerably quicker than regular showdowns even if you fail 2/5 times.
Did you do this ‘method’ for most of your run to 50 showdowns complete?
Nope, found it to be inconsistent. Works maybe 45% of the time with good non-bunt hitting and RNG.
What I instead did is I’d take 2-3 85+ speed guys in the order and always drag bunt when they come up. Helps avoid double plays primarily but also is usually an equal or higher success rate than regular hitting.
Appreciate the tips. Super props to get those hammered out. I did the AL east so far and found I could do a full run in about 25 mins and was pretty successful but even doing those few I was burnt out for a little bit
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@csmith1033_xbl said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
@kdclemson_psn said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
@csmith1033_xbl said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
@kdclemson_psn said in I won a full 12-0 showdown by (almost) exclusively drag bunting.:
Just did it again, 3 outs remaining. I'm 2/3 on this so far, but it does seem considerably quicker than regular showdowns even if you fail 2/5 times.
Did you do this ‘method’ for most of your run to 50 showdowns complete?
Nope, found it to be inconsistent. Works maybe 45% of the time with good non-bunt hitting and RNG.
What I instead did is I’d take 2-3 85+ speed guys in the order and always drag bunt when they come up. Helps avoid double plays primarily but also is usually an equal or higher success rate than regular hitting.
Appreciate the tips. Super props to get those hammered out. I did the AL east so far and found I could do a full run in about 25 mins and was pretty successful but even doing those few I was burnt out for a little bit
Full run in 25 minutes is excellent. That's about the time I shot for and just watched baseball in the background.
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Possibly the greatest, most intelligent and possibly productive post to ever grace the forum. Hats off to you king. lmao
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