More Free Packs=Lower Odds
-
Is this another thread where people don't understand how odds work?
-
@maskedgrappler said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
Is this another thread where people don't understand how odds work?
Everyone assumes it's packs "they open".
-
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.
I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.
I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.
Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.
I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.
I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck
Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol
So I ended up opening my stockpile of reward packs:
43 regular packs
54 Team Affinity packs
6 Silver Player packs
1 Headliner
1 Gold Player pack
8 Ballin is a Habit packsResults:
33 Silver players
19 Gold players
1 KershawSafe to say my pack luck hasn't improved
-
I have 292 pages of pack openings
-
I’ve been told by mathematicians from Walmart who need a calculator to break a 20 that 1:50 odds does not mean you should get a diamond roughly every 50 packs it anywhere close to it.
-
1:50 odds means you have a 2% chance to pull a diamond in any single pack. Its not hard.
-
@davisonkj17 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@GixxerRyder750 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
Silver Player Packs only offer 1 card, but you've got 104 pulled out of 89 Packs?
not silver player packs (Headliners) which have been renamed SilverLiners
Headliners offer 1 in 10 diamond, so 9 out of 89 is right there. You’ve had better headliner luck than most.
-
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I’ve been told by mathematicians from Walmart who need a calculator to break a 20 that 1:50 odds does not mean you should get a diamond roughly every 50 packs it anywhere close to it.
Who is saying that I am expecting a diamond every 50 packs? I just for once, would like to open 2-3 in a stretch of 50 though. I haven't ever gotten anywhere near that.
Since I opened 10,000 packs and got a diamond player every 0.43% of packs, I feel that my "pack luck" is awful. Someone is getting those 4/5 diamonds :50 packs to make up for my .5 out of 50 packs. Would be nice to be on the plus side just once.
-
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I’ve been told by mathematicians from Walmart who need a calculator to break a 20 that 1:50 odds does not mean you should get a diamond roughly every 50 packs it anywhere close to it.
Who is saying that I am expecting a diamond every 50 packs? I just for once, would like to open 2-3 in a stretch of 50 though. I haven't ever gotten anywhere near that.
Since I opened 10,000 packs and got a diamond player every 0.43% of packs, I feel that my "pack luck" is awful. Someone is getting those 4/5 diamonds 1:50 packs to make up for my .5 out of 50 packs. Would be nice to be on the plus side just once.
I fell ya. I just pulled a diamond after 268 packs without one. I’m told this is the standard. You have a 2% chance to pull a diamond out of each pack. That somehow doesn’t equate to pulling a diamond 2% of packs or close to it. I’m just passing along the information I am told.
-
Not that it makes it right, but everyone does realize it doesn’t have to be a diamond player, right? I get more of those ridiculous nameplates and icons that they use to justify their odds than I’d like that’s for sure.
-
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
Not that it makes it right, but everyone does realize it doesn’t have to be a diamond player, right? I get more of those ridiculous nameplates and icons that they use to justify there odds than I’d like that’s for sure.
It’s specific to 85 and up players
-
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
-
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
-
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
It a diamond player item. 100% a player.
-
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say a diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
-
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
-
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
That really doesn’t say anything tho. It’s basically says 1:50 odds shouldn’t produce 1 in 50 with nothing to actually prove that. I’d like to see what it’s based on.
-
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@Untchable704 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@copassatguy said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@phillydave35 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
The 1 in 50? Don’t think so, but if it is, it’s not accurate at all.
98% chance per each individual pack not having a diamond player is accurate
Having more packs does not increase your odds. Same chance per pack
What theory are you using to say this? Based on a 2% per pack odds, How many packs would you say ia diamond should come out using your math expertise? Interested to hear it.
No expertise or theory needed to explain... every pack has same odds 1:50 of having a diamond in it.
There is no magical number of packs to buy that will produce a diamond player. Sure the more packs you buy the likelihood of getting a diamond from a pack is certain to happen at some point but the odds are not in your favor
That really doesn’t say anything tho. It’s basically says 1:50 odds shouldn’t produce 1 in 50 with nothing to actually prove that. I’d like to see what it’s based on.
Ok... get a standard deck of 52 cards and take 2 out. Let's say the ace of spades is in the 50 cards and this represents a diamond player. Have someone shuffle the cards and you choose one card and your goal is to select the ace of spades. After selecting the card you put it back in the deck and it is reshuffled for the next card draw. Do this 50 times and let me know how many times you select the ace of spades. This is what the odds are based on.
-
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.
I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.
I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.
Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.
I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.
I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck
Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol
So I ended up opening my stockpile of reward packs:
43 regular packs
54 Team Affinity packs
6 Silver Player packs
1 Headliner
1 Gold Player pack
8 Ballin is a Habit packsResults:
33 Silver players
19 Gold players
1 KershawSafe to say my pack luck hasn't improved
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@niatstihs86 said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
@formallyforearms said in More Free Packs=Lower Odds:
I'm currently saving all my earned packs to open at once. I've got around 60 with 5 BiaH packs, the headliner, and mostly regular/TA packs.
I'm planning on opening everything together with Conquest/other 4th Inning rewards.
I still fully expect to get 0-1 diamonds, lol.
Yeah hope you have better luck than me. Good luck.
I did similarly last inning, but had around half of the regular/TA packs you stated. I pulled 0 diamonds. Pack luck is certainly not on my side with this game, lol.
I've said plenty of times before, but I opened and recorded over 10,000 packs on 18, and never pulled Trout. 30 LS diamonds, and 13 flashback/legends. 0.43% diamond player pull rate. So I would say with certainty that I have miserable pack luck
Well I will grind out more packs and open them up. At least we can see who has the worst pack luck this year.....might be a good thread lol
So I ended up opening my stockpile of reward packs:
43 regular packs
54 Team Affinity packs
6 Silver Player packs
1 Headliner
1 Gold Player pack
8 Ballin is a Habit packsResults:
33 Silver players
19 Gold players
1 KershawSafe to say my pack luck hasn't improved
That was how my last opening went too. I did save up enough stubs to get the NL Central done so that's a plus.
-
Some back of the napkin math....
You have a .98^100 of opening 100 packs and not getting a diamond. That is around 13 percent.
You have a .98^200 chance of opening 200 packs and no getting a diamond. That’s around 2 percent.
You have a .98^268 chance of opening 268 packs and not getting a diamond. That is around 0.5% or 1 out of 200.
Do with those numbers what you will.
