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I pulled Realmuto...then as an apology from the Show gods, I pulled Bellinger in a pack from Showdown 5 minutes later. I accepted that apology with open arms.

@baboonishace said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:

@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:

@baboonishace said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:

@esmlb_rop said in 25 standard packs > 5 headliners. Here's why:

After watching this Vsauce video on youtube about the Newton-Pepys problem regarding dice rolling probabilities, I got to thinking about pack odds with pulling diamonds. So if you're hellbent on sinking 37,500 stubs down the toilet, you're better off buying 25 standard packs instead of the total 5 headliner packs available to each person.

Scenario A is like rolling five 11-sided dice (5 headliner packs with 1:10 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(10/11)^5= 37.9% chance of pulling a diamond

Scenario B is like rolling twenty five 51-sided dice (25 standard packs with 1:50 odds of a diamond)
Solution: 1-(50/51)^25= 39% chance of pulling a diamond plus a gold or better card in the 20 bundle

The math is better explained in this Wikipedia article, but there is essentially a 1.1% higher chance of pulling at least a single diamond from 25 standard packs over 5 headliner packs

The only thing would be the value of the diamond. The headliner packs would be more likely to be a higher value right?

The stated odds don't really go into specifics, so I'm assuming those odds are for any diamond in general

Might be a dumb question, but can you get a headliner out of standard pack? As you can tell, I don't buy them much lol. I've found for me it's better to just buy the card I want because I never pull anybody good out of a pack

Yes, you can. I have pulled Ozzie Smith and Vida Blue from Standard packs within the last 3 weeks