Packs
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@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
No you can't. Stop.
Yes you can. Stop.
Okay whatever you say. Here's some advice; take a math class.
Lol so you’re saying on a system with static odds at no point would you hit a number that would show you an estimate of exactly how the odds were producing? Lmfao. But at least you drove it home with “take a math class”. Made it sound more believable.
Pack odds are universal an apply to everyone playing the game and opening packs.
That said no matter what anyone says you will always belive that the odds aren't real and SDS is working against you.
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@whiplash0013_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
This logic would only work if you were the only one opening packs at that period of time. You are missing a huge part of the equation when millions of others are opening packs at the same time as you.
You have 1:50 chance every pack you open. Nobody else’s pack matter to you.
You track enough packs to get that number to stop moving more than 1 thousandth of a decimal you can be pretty sure you’re close to what they produce at. At least close enough to know you’re around the number. Close enough that I would bet money on the whole number one way or the other.
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@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
No you can't. Stop.
Yes you can. Stop.
Okay whatever you say. Here's some advice; take a math class.
Lol so you’re saying on a system with static odds at no point would you hit a number that would show you an estimate of exactly how the odds were producing? Lmfao. But at least you drove it home with “take a math class”. Made it sound more believable.
My god. You know, I'm gonna stop right here. Because there's this saying that goes "never argue with a fool, onlookers might not be able to tell the difference".
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@cdnmoneymaker93_xbl said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
No you can't. Stop.
Yes you can. Stop.
Okay whatever you say. Here's some advice; take a math class.
Lol so you’re saying on a system with static odds at no point would you hit a number that would show you an estimate of exactly how the odds were producing? Lmfao. But at least you drove it home with “take a math class”. Made it sound more believable.
Pack odds are universal an apply to everyone playing the game and opening packs.
That said no matter what anyone says you will always belive that the odds aren't real and SDS is working against you.
I actually said they were producing at the 2%. Biah we’re not. Granted I don’t have nearly the volume because you get less. But those weren’t even close.
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@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@cdnmoneymaker93_xbl said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
No you can't. Stop.
Yes you can. Stop.
Okay whatever you say. Here's some advice; take a math class.
Lol so you’re saying on a system with static odds at no point would you hit a number that would show you an estimate of exactly how the odds were producing? Lmfao. But at least you drove it home with “take a math class”. Made it sound more believable.
Pack odds are universal an apply to everyone playing the game and opening packs.
That said no matter what anyone says you will always belive that the odds aren't real and SDS is working against you.
I actually said they were producing at the 2%. Biah we’re not. Granted I don’t have nearly the volume because you get less. But those weren’t even close.
Is your username short for "unteachable"? Becaus that would make total sense.
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@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@whiplash0013_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
This logic would only work if you were the only one opening packs at that period of time. You are missing a huge part of the equation when millions of others are opening packs at the same time as you.
You have 1:50 chance every pack you open. Nobody else’s pack matter to you.
You track enough packs to get that number to stop moving more than 1 thousandth of a decimal you can be pretty sure you’re close to what they produce at. At least close enough to know you’re around the number. Close enough that I would bet money on the whole number one way or the other.
This is correct. That other dude doesn’t understand binomial distribution. Heres the equation if anybody wants to know their chances. This distribution will be accurate to both an individual opening packs and the aggregate (everybody opening packs).
1- (.98 ^ # of packs bought)= % of pulling a diamond player.
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There's no reason to buy packs if you have the Live Series completed.
The odds of pulling a 6k diamond is 1:50. Almost always live series. Rarely diamonds from headliners - no other cards are in packs.
Buy low/sell high on the market to complete your collections is the only way to use stubs. Once you have all the collections complete - buy cards the 1st day they hit packs in the marketplace and sit on them. For example: I've made over 400k just buying and selling Wieters the past month. He's been as low as 30k and as high as 80k and that was BEFORE the mookie collection came out.
If we stop buying packs after you complete the live series - SDS will be forced to change their pack method.
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BASIC math is difficult for some it seems
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@ogbuttamilk_mlbts said in Packs:
There's no reason to buy packs if you have the Live Series completed.
The odds of pulling a 6k diamond is 1:50. Almost always live series. Rarely diamonds from headliners - no other cards are in packs.
Buy low/sell high on the market to complete your collections is the only way to use stubs. Once you have all the collections complete - buy cards the 1st day they hit packs in the marketplace and sit on them. For example: I've made over 400k just buying and selling Wieters the past month. He's been as low as 30k and as high as 80k and that was BEFORE the mookie collection came out.
If we stop buying packs after you complete the live series - SDS will be forced to change their pack method.
No they won't.
Not enough people have the LS completed compared to the overall players base of the game. People will always buy packs no matter. If it's not you, it's me. If it's not me, it's him. If it's not him, it's her.
For every NO $ spent person who doesn't buy packs, I would bet you there are 1000 people who do.
SDS knows their target audience, and they market to them and price accordingly.
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I had great luck last year just horrible this year
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@koufax_yourself said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@whiplash0013_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
This logic would only work if you were the only one opening packs at that period of time. You are missing a huge part of the equation when millions of others are opening packs at the same time as you.
You have 1:50 chance every pack you open. Nobody else’s pack matter to you.
You track enough packs to get that number to stop moving more than 1 thousandth of a decimal you can be pretty sure you’re close to what they produce at. At least close enough to know you’re around the number. Close enough that I would bet money on the whole number one way or the other.
This is correct. That other dude doesn’t understand binomial distribution. Heres the equation if anybody wants to know their chances. This distribution will be accurate to both an individual opening packs and the aggregate (everybody opening packs).
1- (.98 ^ # of packs bought)= % of pulling a diamond player.
Lmao. Look man, it's really really simple. You can not calculate something when one of the deciding numbers is missing, let alone both of them. In order to calculate the factual odds, you'd need to know how many packs are opened in total by EVERYONE who has ever opened a pack and then look at how many total diamonds/golds/silvers were in those packs. That is the one and only way to reliably calculate the pack odds.
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@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@koufax_yourself said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@whiplash0013_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
This logic would only work if you were the only one opening packs at that period of time. You are missing a huge part of the equation when millions of others are opening packs at the same time as you.
You have 1:50 chance every pack you open. Nobody else’s pack matter to you.
You track enough packs to get that number to stop moving more than 1 thousandth of a decimal you can be pretty sure you’re close to what they produce at. At least close enough to know you’re around the number. Close enough that I would bet money on the whole number one way or the other.
This is correct. That other dude doesn’t understand binomial distribution. Heres the equation if anybody wants to know their chances. This distribution will be accurate to both an individual opening packs and the aggregate (everybody opening packs).
1- (.98 ^ # of packs bought)= % of pulling a diamond player.
Lmao. Look man, it's really really simple. You can not calculate something when one of the deciding numbers is missing, let alone both of them. In order to calculate the factual odds, you'd need to know how many packs are opened in total by EVERYONE who has ever opened a pack and then look at how many total diamonds/golds/silvers were in those packs. That is the one and only way to reliably calculate the pack odds.
Not to get in the middle of this mindless exercise, but you’re trying to apply the “law of large numbers” to guarantee that there’s no way to calculate the probabilities with an unknown large quantity. This instructional link (its mind numbingly boring and long and confusing as hell) lays out the arguments and methods to using smaller sample sizes to determine true probabilities. Polling uses these theories consistently, and while lately they’ve missed some targets, in general they’re fairly accurate even when only polling less than 1,000 people in a population greater than millions.
https://learningstatisticswithr.com/book/estimation.html
At the end of the day, none of this matters, and we must just accept the probabilities listed are accurate, SDS could face enormous fines/penalties with some countries that are regulating these things in video games.
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@savagesteve74 said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@koufax_yourself said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@whiplash0013_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
This logic would only work if you were the only one opening packs at that period of time. You are missing a huge part of the equation when millions of others are opening packs at the same time as you.
You have 1:50 chance every pack you open. Nobody else’s pack matter to you.
You track enough packs to get that number to stop moving more than 1 thousandth of a decimal you can be pretty sure you’re close to what they produce at. At least close enough to know you’re around the number. Close enough that I would bet money on the whole number one way or the other.
This is correct. That other dude doesn’t understand binomial distribution. Heres the equation if anybody wants to know their chances. This distribution will be accurate to both an individual opening packs and the aggregate (everybody opening packs).
1- (.98 ^ # of packs bought)= % of pulling a diamond player.
Lmao. Look man, it's really really simple. You can not calculate something when one of the deciding numbers is missing, let alone both of them. In order to calculate the factual odds, you'd need to know how many packs are opened in total by EVERYONE who has ever opened a pack and then look at how many total diamonds/golds/silvers were in those packs. That is the one and only way to reliably calculate the pack odds.
Not to get in the middle of this mindless exercise, but you’re trying to apply the “law of large numbers” to guarantee that there’s no way to calculate the probabilities with an unknown large quantity. This instructional link (its mind numbingly boring and long and confusing as hell) lays out the arguments and methods to using smaller sample sizes to determine true probabilities. Polling uses these theories consistently, and while lately they’ve missed some targets, in general they’re fairly accurate even when only polling less than 1,000 people in a population greater than millions.
https://learningstatisticswithr.com/book/estimation.html
At the end of the day, none of this matters, and we must just accept the probabilities listed are accurate, SDS could face enormous fines/penalties with some countries that are regulating these things in video games.
The key word in your monologue is probabilities. I agree with everything else you said though.
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There’s some guy or group of guys with drawn out algorithms that calculate this stuff. And at the end of the day if SDS gets audited they better have these numbers to prove these odds. I don’t think a company or any that makes huge amounts of money on in game purchases would shoot themselves in the foot like that. The odds are already pretty bad. No reason to fudge those numbers or have them be untrue.
SDS would have a lot more to lose than gain by not have accurate odds on packs.
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After opening more packs than I cared to admit I’d say the 50/1 and 15/1 odds in standard / balling is about right.
Now.
I do have gripes with the headliner packs.
I don’t want normal diamonds in there. I want the actual headliner at 10/1.
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@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@savagesteve74 said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@koufax_yourself said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@whiplash0013_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
@raesone_psn said in Packs:
@untchable704_psn said in Packs:
I don’t know if they are true or not, when I tracked them pretty long term they were on regular packs, BIAH weren’t even close, but I do know when your regular packs are 1500 and less than 5% give 1500 in value and a large percentage of those give 3.5 times value what you have is a huge scam.
You can track all you want, but you will always only be able to track the packs you open and never the packs the community as a whole opens at a given moment. Therefore it's impossible for anyone to measure/conclude if the pack odds are or aren't true.
When you open enough packs you can get a base and recognize patterns. Whether y’all want to admit it or not. When you get high enough that variance doesn’t make any big swings up or down you can make a decent guess on what adding more packs into the numbers would do. Is it 100% accurate? No. But it holds more weight than people want to give it credit for.
This logic would only work if you were the only one opening packs at that period of time. You are missing a huge part of the equation when millions of others are opening packs at the same time as you.
You have 1:50 chance every pack you open. Nobody else’s pack matter to you.
You track enough packs to get that number to stop moving more than 1 thousandth of a decimal you can be pretty sure you’re close to what they produce at. At least close enough to know you’re around the number. Close enough that I would bet money on the whole number one way or the other.
This is correct. That other dude doesn’t understand binomial distribution. Heres the equation if anybody wants to know their chances. This distribution will be accurate to both an individual opening packs and the aggregate (everybody opening packs).
1- (.98 ^ # of packs bought)= % of pulling a diamond player.
Lmao. Look man, it's really really simple. You can not calculate something when one of the deciding numbers is missing, let alone both of them. In order to calculate the factual odds, you'd need to know how many packs are opened in total by EVERYONE who has ever opened a pack and then look at how many total diamonds/golds/silvers were in those packs. That is the one and only way to reliably calculate the pack odds.
Not to get in the middle of this mindless exercise, but you’re trying to apply the “law of large numbers” to guarantee that there’s no way to calculate the probabilities with an unknown large quantity. This instructional link (its mind numbingly boring and long and confusing as hell) lays out the arguments and methods to using smaller sample sizes to determine true probabilities. Polling uses these theories consistently, and while lately they’ve missed some targets, in general they’re fairly accurate even when only polling less than 1,000 people in a population greater than millions.
https://learningstatisticswithr.com/book/estimation.html
At the end of the day, none of this matters, and we must just accept the probabilities listed are accurate, SDS could face enormous fines/penalties with some countries that are regulating these things in video games.
The key word in your monologue is probabilities. I agree with everything else you said though.
Meh, odds vs probabilities are basically the same in discussion. From a mathematical standpoint, they are different, but once you figure out probabilities, it’s a simple (I know, not simple for most) equation to determine the odds.
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A admin locked this topic on
