Predictive Analytics for Roster Update Gems!

SDS

Hello everybody, I've been running a predictive analytics model since '20 now to identify rating changes of players as well as an accompanying model that predicts increases/decreases in overall based on those rating changes. Last year I was sitting at a .7 r^2 for accuracy of updates and I'm constantly looking to refine my model.

It pulls in players' real-life stats over the past 3 seasons and compares them with samples of players who have been upgraded/downgraded per rating category, so theoretically the longer it runs and the more data I feed to it, the more accurate it will be.

Here's a few guys that it has getting upgraded, along with a % probability that they're heading upwards:

  1. Kris Bryant - 88% probability to diamond
  2. J.D. Martinez - 74% probability to diamond
  3. Xander Bogaerts - 73% probability to diamond
  4. Giancarlo Stanton - 84% probability to diamond
  5. Vlad Jr. - 71% probability to diamond

Bonus deep cut upgrade potential:

Christian Javier, based on my model, has a 94% chance of going gold and a 63% chance of going diamond.

SDS

Is there a roster update today?

SDS

@jmcdonald1817 said in Predictive Analytics for Roster Update Gems!:

Is there a roster update today?

Next week

SDS

Well, I just bought a shitload of Bryants yesterday at around 2.2-2.5K, so I hope you're right.

Knowing my luck, though, he'll pull a hammy and go on IR today.

SDS

He got Xander right