Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 95
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
There is no one stat that perfectly quantifies a player. Even WAR. It's reasonably good at comparing players at the same position. It's not great for comparing different positions. For example, who would you rather have last year - Nick Ahmed or Josh Bell? I don't think many are choosing the former, despite the WAR difference percentage being similar to that of Ozzie and Maz.
Nick Ahmed had 2.4 fWAR last year, Josh Bell had 2.5 fWAR last year. They are both equally valuable.
If Nick Ahmed had 5.0 fWAR last year and Bell still only had 2.5, obviously Ahmed would be the more valuable player because he has double the WAR.
Smith has double the WAR of Mazeroski. It isn’t even close, Mazeroski was not good. If it was only a couple points difference, then you might have some kind of argument. But there’s no argument to be made when one player has double what the other has.
Show me where I have ever mentioned fWAR.
What do you think fWAR means?
Does it mean a variation of WAR that people use when baseball reference doesn't quite fit their argument?
Let me know.
bWAR is just as big of gap
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
There is no one stat that perfectly quantifies a player. Even WAR. It's reasonably good at comparing players at the same position. It's not great for comparing different positions. For example, who would you rather have last year - Nick Ahmed or Josh Bell? I don't think many are choosing the former, despite the WAR difference percentage being similar to that of Ozzie and Maz.
Nick Ahmed had 2.4 fWAR last year, Josh Bell had 2.5 fWAR last year. They are both equally valuable.
If Nick Ahmed had 5.0 fWAR last year and Bell still only had 2.5, obviously Ahmed would be the more valuable player because he has double the WAR.
Smith has double the WAR of Mazeroski. It isn’t even close, Mazeroski was not good. If it was only a couple points difference, then you might have some kind of argument. But there’s no argument to be made when one player has double what the other has.
Show me where I have ever mentioned fWAR.
What do you think fWAR means?
Does it mean a variation of WAR that people use when baseball reference doesn't quite fit their argument?
Let me know.
It actually means a version of WAR that is better for comparing position players.
You also never mentioned bWAR either, just WAR. Most people that know what they’re talking about use fWAR for position players, bWAR for pitchers.
I’m not sure what your point is though, considering Ozzie Smith has basically double the WAR of Mazeroski in both bWAR and fWAR.
As for Ahmed and Bell, that’s why fWAR is better position players. bWAR tends to highly overrate defense, hence Ahmed having more bWAR than fWAR.
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I don't know why people are so adamantly defending Ozzie > Maz and using one statistic to do it. It's a good comp. Recency effect? Confirmation bias?
As I've said repeatedly in this thread. There is no single statistic that can quantify a player's value. Both are flawed. This was my point when I brought up Nick Ahmed vs. Josh Bell in 2019. And then someone conveniently chose a different variation of their favorite stat to try and discredit that point. I've also said repeatedly that shortstops accumulate WAR easier. Which is why I brought up Ahmed.
I rest my argument on their nearly identical offensive production and defensive prowess, be it at different positions and therefore different WAR. I'm not saying either does or doesn't belong in the Hall.
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
I don't know why people are so adamantly defending Ozzie > Maz and using one statistic to do it. It's a good comp. Recency effect? Confirmation bias?
As I've said repeatedly in this thread. There is no single statistic that can quantify a player's value. Both are flawed. This was my point when I brought up Nick Ahmed vs. Josh Bell in 2019. And then someone conveniently chose a different variation of their favorite stat to try and discredit that point.
Clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about.
If Player A has double the WAR of Player B, then Player A is undeniably the better player. That’s too big of a gap to make any kind of argument over.
Also, I used fWAR because 1. You didn’t specify which WAR you were using, a mistake people tend to make when they don’t know what they’re talking about, and 2. fWAR is much better to use when looking at position players.
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@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
They’re two different card types.
If Glavine got a Cy Young award card based on his 1991 season, it would definitely be boosted higher.
But Hernandez’s 2010 season was basically every bit as good as any season Glavine had. If Hernandez got a Signature Series card instead, it would be lower.
Hernandez SS card was a 96 last year
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@phillydave35 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
They’re two different card types.
If Glavine got a Cy Young award card based on his 1991 season, it would definitely be boosted higher.
But Hernandez’s 2010 season was basically every bit as good as any season Glavine had. If Hernandez got a Signature Series card instead, it would be lower.
Hernandez SS card was a 96 last year
Good point, but we also didn’t have prime or awards cards last year. They likely changed how SS cards are calculated to fit in better with Prime and Awards cards.
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@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
I don't know why people are so adamantly defending Ozzie > Maz and using one statistic to do it. It's a good comp. Recency effect? Confirmation bias?
As I've said repeatedly in this thread. There is no single statistic that can quantify a player's value. Both are flawed. This was my point when I brought up Nick Ahmed vs. Josh Bell in 2019. And then someone conveniently chose a different variation of their favorite stat to try and discredit that point.
Clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about.
If Player A has double the WAR of Player B, than Player A is undeniably the better player. That’s too big of a gap to make any kind of argument over.
Also, I used fWAR because 1. You didn’t specify which WAR you were using, a mistake people tend to make when they don’t know what they’re talking about, and 2. fWAR is much better to use when looking at position players.
Thank you for your analysis of my baseball knowledge. I'll strive to use your preferred method of single statistic analysis so that I can "know what I'm talking about" in the future...
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
I don't know why people are so adamantly defending Ozzie > Maz and using one statistic to do it. It's a good comp. Recency effect? Confirmation bias?
As I've said repeatedly in this thread. There is no single statistic that can quantify a player's value. Both are flawed. This was my point when I brought up Nick Ahmed vs. Josh Bell in 2019. And then someone conveniently chose a different variation of their favorite stat to try and discredit that point.
What was your point with Bell and Ahmed?
They're close to the same value to their team. All that tells me, is your perception that Bell is much more valuable is wrong. He's either not as good last year as you may have believed, or Ahmed was better than you expected...On Ozzie and Maz... If it were closer and not double the difference, you could say it's negligible.. And debatable on who's better.
Ozzie was a 90 wRC+ hitter..
Maz was a 82 wRC+ hitterOzzie stole 580 bags, and was an incredible baserunner.
Maz had no baserunning value at all. 27 bags his whole career
Ozzie was the greatest defender of any position... The Babe Ruth of defense
Maz was not even top 100 in that same list.
You don't need WAR to even be mentioned to see the difference
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@Nanthrax_1 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
I don't know why people are so adamantly defending Ozzie > Maz and using one statistic to do it. It's a good comp. Recency effect? Confirmation bias?
As I've said repeatedly in this thread. There is no single statistic that can quantify a player's value. Both are flawed. This was my point when I brought up Nick Ahmed vs. Josh Bell in 2019. And then someone conveniently chose a different variation of their favorite stat to try and discredit that point.
What was your point with Bell and Ahmed?
They're close to the same value to their team. All that tells me, is your perception that Bell is much more valuable is wrong. He's either not as good last year as you may have believed, or Ahmed was better than you expected...On Ozzie and Maz... If it were closer and not double the difference, you could say it's negligible.. And debatable on who's better.
Ozzie was a 90 wRC+ hitter..
Maz was a 82 wRC+ hitterOzzie stole 580 bags, and was an incredible baserunner.
Maz had no baserunning value at all. 27 bags his whole career
Ozzie was the greatest defender of any position... The Babe Ruth of defense
Maz was not even top 100 in that same list.
You don't need WAR to even be mentioned to see the difference
If you're faulting me for believing Bell is more valuable than Ahmed. Guilty as charged.
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
I don't know why people are so adamantly defending Ozzie > Maz and using one statistic to do it. It's a good comp. Recency effect? Confirmation bias?
As I've said repeatedly in this thread. There is no single statistic that can quantify a player's value. Both are flawed. This was my point when I brought up Nick Ahmed vs. Josh Bell in 2019. And then someone conveniently chose a different variation of their favorite stat to try and discredit that point.
Clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about.
If Player A has double the WAR of Player B, than Player A is undeniably the better player. That’s too big of a gap to make any kind of argument over.
Also, I used fWAR because 1. You didn’t specify which WAR you were using, a mistake people tend to make when they don’t know what they’re talking about, and 2. fWAR is much better to use when looking at position players.
Thank you for your analysis of my baseball knowledge. I'll strive to use your preferred method of single statistic analysis so that I can "know what I'm talking about" in the future...
No problem, it’s always good to educate the ignorant.
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Here's some food for thought.
https://apnews.com/5f309f5ab974173b3bc686c33e99ec63 [Warning: more than one statistic is used for the comparison.]
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@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@DriveByTrucker17 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
I don't know why people are so adamantly defending Ozzie > Maz and using one statistic to do it. It's a good comp. Recency effect? Confirmation bias?
As I've said repeatedly in this thread. There is no single statistic that can quantify a player's value. Both are flawed. This was my point when I brought up Nick Ahmed vs. Josh Bell in 2019. And then someone conveniently chose a different variation of their favorite stat to try and discredit that point.
Clearly you have no idea what you’re talking about.
If Player A has double the WAR of Player B, than Player A is undeniably the better player. That’s too big of a gap to make any kind of argument over.
Also, I used fWAR because 1. You didn’t specify which WAR you were using, a mistake people tend to make when they don’t know what they’re talking about, and 2. fWAR is much better to use when looking at position players.
Thank you for your analysis of my baseball knowledge. I'll strive to use your preferred method of single statistic analysis so that I can "know what I'm talking about" in the future...
No problem, it’s always good to educate the ignorant.
Thank you as well for your gentle and condescending nature.
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
Here's some food for thought.
https://apnews.com/5f309f5ab974173b3bc686c33e99ec63 [Warning: more than one statistic is used for the comparison.]
Luckily it's not 1996 anymore, and we can better value players... It's also terribly written in favor of Maz. Some guy calls him the greatest defender at 2B because of how many DPs he got? Or completely writes off the fact there is an insane difference in baserunning?
This article was written by someone who believed RBIs and fielding percentage are the proper way to compare players..
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
Here's some food for thought.
https://apnews.com/5f309f5ab974173b3bc686c33e99ec63 [Warning: more than one statistic is used for the comparison.]
The only stats they used in that article are AVG, HR, RBI, SB, and hits. How many double plays or assists a guy had doesn’t mean much of anything, neither do gold gloves.
It was also written in 1996, by a biased Pirates writer.
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So nothing substantive about the argument then? Only alleged bias and completely discrediting something because it is old.
In my view it is silly to base your entire argument on one statistic. But it is absurd to attack someone that simply asks you to see a bigger picture. This is like looking at Hitler and saying he was a great leader because the German economy did well under him.
Boom. We made it to Hitler. Good night literally and figuratively! lol
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@Bob_Loblaw1984 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
So nothing substantive about the argument then? Only alleged bias and completely discrediting something because it is old.
In my view it is silly to base your entire argument on one statistic. But it is absurd to attack someone that simply asks you to see a bigger picture. This is like looking at Hitler and saying he was a great leader because the German economy did well under him.
Boom. We made it to Hitler. Good night literally and figuratively! lol
Do you not realize that every version of WAR encompasses many other stats?
It gives you the entire picture. And when the entire picture says one guy is 2x more valuable than another guy, you can’t argue that. It blows my mind that somebody could actually be this dense. You have no idea what you’re talking about. If you’re this ignorant on a subject, you shouldn’t give your opinion on it.
Also, it does matter that the article is from 1996. We’ve had many, many statistical advancements since then. I mean, the guy didn’t have any advanced metrics whatsoever in his article. Oh, and the writer being biased is just a fact, not alleged. If you look him up, he writes for Pittsburgh news outlets.
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@GradektheBard said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
It would have been a 99, but SDS couldn’t figure out how to give him strike calls a foot and a half out of the zone as a perk.
This right here made my day.
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Because Felix Hernandez was flat out better than Tom Glavine, he just had a much shorter career, or period of effectiveness at least.
Before you flip out go loo at the numbers. Glavine has a career 3.1 BB9 and 5.3 SO9, his career WHIP is 1.314. Even in the very best year of his career he had a 2.5 BB9 to 7.0 SO9 to go with a 8.8 H9... that's not that great. He did have a 7.3 H9, which is great, but at the end of the day in his bestyear he only had a 1.09 WHIP... The only year his WHIP ever touched below 1.10, and rarely below 1.20. His WHIP was routinely 1.20+. In his best year of his career he had a 3.06 FIP.
King Felix, however, thus far has a career 8.3 H9 to go auth his 2.7 BB9 and 8.3 SO9 -- superior walk to strike out ratio to go with a care 1.20 WHIP, a level Glavine only beat once, and that's Felix career average.... But look at his peak, in his best year he turned in WHIP below 1 -- 0.915 as a result of his 6.8 H9, 1.8 BB9, 9.5 SO9 -- numbers that blow Glavine out of the water, and he didn't even win the Cy that year... Had a 2.14 ERA that year in 2014 Glavine never sniffed that level of dominance, his FIP was 2.56!
Glavine was a very popular player on a team that was very popular, he had a very long successful career of pitching great but never dominant. King Felix played on teams no one cared about and has had a great career but much shorter peak, but he was dominant in his peak.
Both at their best, Felix was better.
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@notoriousHEB said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
Because Felix Hernandez was flat out better than Tom Glavine, he just had a much shorter career, or period of effectiveness at least.
Before you flip out go loo at the numbers. Glavine has a career 3.1 BB9 and 5.3 SO9, his career WHIP is 1.314. Even in the very best year of his career he had a 2.5 BB9 to 7.0 SO9 to go with a 8.8 H9... that's not that great. He did have a 7.3 H9, which is great, but at the end of the day in his bestyear he only had a 1.09 WHIP... The only year his WHIP ever touched below 1.10, and rarely below 1.20. His WHIP was routinely 1.20+. In his best year of his career he had a 3.06 FIP.
King Felix, however, thus far has a career 8.3 H9 to go auth his 2.7 BB9 and 8.3 SO9 -- superior walk to strike out ratio to go with a care 1.20 WHIP, a level Glavine only beat once, and that's Felix career average.... But look at his peak, in his best year he turned in WHIP below 1 -- 0.915 as a result of his 6.8 H9, 1.8 BB9, 9.5 SO9 -- numbers that blow Glavine out of the water, and he didn't even win the Cy that year... Had a 2.14 ERA that year in 2014 Glavine never sniffed that level of dominance, his FIP was 2.56!
Glavine was a very popular player on a team that was very popular, he had a very long successful career of pitching great but never dominant. King Felix played on teams no one cared about and has had a great career but much shorter peak, but he was dominant in his peak.
Both at their best, Felix was better.
Glavine pitched to contact as most did back then. It was a completely different game.. to compare I would focus more on ERA+ and FIP, and if course bWAR to compare pitchers from today vs. someone who pitched in the steroid era...
They have nearly identical ERA+, and FIP a bit better for Felix.. you're right, Felix was more dominant, and had a better peak. He was an ace for a short time. Glavine pitched more like an excellent #2... But for a very long time.
For their careers I'd take Glavine. Longevity is something to be valued highly... Not a strike against... Felix flamed out badly, way too early.. which is why there is a 30 bWAR difference
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@Nanthrax_1 said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
@notoriousHEB said in Why is Glavine's Top Card Only a 96:
Because Felix Hernandez was flat out better than Tom Glavine, he just had a much shorter career, or period of effectiveness at least.
Before you flip out go loo at the numbers. Glavine has a career 3.1 BB9 and 5.3 SO9, his career WHIP is 1.314. Even in the very best year of his career he had a 2.5 BB9 to 7.0 SO9 to go with a 8.8 H9... that's not that great. He did have a 7.3 H9, which is great, but at the end of the day in his bestyear he only had a 1.09 WHIP... The only year his WHIP ever touched below 1.10, and rarely below 1.20. His WHIP was routinely 1.20+. In his best year of his career he had a 3.06 FIP.
King Felix, however, thus far has a career 8.3 H9 to go auth his 2.7 BB9 and 8.3 SO9 -- superior walk to strike out ratio to go with a care 1.20 WHIP, a level Glavine only beat once, and that's Felix career average.... But look at his peak, in his best year he turned in WHIP below 1 -- 0.915 as a result of his 6.8 H9, 1.8 BB9, 9.5 SO9 -- numbers that blow Glavine out of the water, and he didn't even win the Cy that year... Had a 2.14 ERA that year in 2014 Glavine never sniffed that level of dominance, his FIP was 2.56!
Glavine was a very popular player on a team that was very popular, he had a very long successful career of pitching great but never dominant. King Felix played on teams no one cared about and has had a great career but much shorter peak, but he was dominant in his peak.
Both at their best, Felix was better.
Glavine pitched to contact as most did back then. It was a completely different game.. to compare I would focus more on ERA+ and FIP, and if course bWAR to compare pitchers from today vs. someone who pitched in the steroid era...
They have nearly identical ERA+, and FIP a bit better for Felix.. you're right, Felix was more dominant, and had a better peak. He was an ace for a short time. Glavine pitched more like an excellent #2... But for a very long time.
For their careers I'd take Glavine. Longevity is something to be valued highly... Not a strike against... Felix flamed out badly, way too early.. which is why there is a 30 bWAR difference
That's fair, but we aren't talking careers... We are talking cards. And the reason i selected those stats is because that's was translates to their in game attributes.
The high peak is going to get the better card. The better career will get more variations of good cards is basically how the game will end up working out.
Felix is a shot of vodka, Glavine is a good craft brew. You want a shot? Or you want to chill and have a beer? That's their careers in a nutshell.
