What’s the deal with arbitration increases?
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Am I the only one noticing massive increases to arbitration? For example, Logan Gilbert is supposedly going from $10M to $31M in his last year before FA. In reality, he’s likely going to ~$17M, not $31M.
The game is really suggesting he deserves to match Skubal from last year? Love the M’s but come on. Saw this issue across many many arbitration outcomes.
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Does the team budget increase enough to cover this?
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Budget increasing or not doesn't change the fact that arbitration numbers are astronomically too high. Logan Gilbert is not coming remotely close to $31-33MM next year. He won't even touch $20M next year in his final arb year.
Budget increasing or not would just be bandaid, it's still an extremely poor arbitration process and that throws off extensions as well. Bryan Woo, who will be arb eligible for the first of three times entering next year, will likely make $6M in '27, $12M in '28 and $18-20M in '29 before being a free agent. (I used Gilbert and George Kirby's arb numbers for the range he'd get)
That is a total of $36-38MM in those three years but the game wants $27MM on average for those three years or just over $81MM.
Arb process is completely broken.
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Dang, the patch doesn't seem to have helped. Still seeing insane arb numbers and thus insane contract extension prices (non free agent contract offers).
I wish they'd just do a deal with spotrac or mlbtraderumors and have them create a model. Their models aren't perfect but they are far, far better. If I ran business ops for SDS, I'd be on the phone with spotrac or mlbtr and offer to have the arb tile card be sponsored/powered by __. Let them own it, they are better, and you both cross promote the change so free marketing as well. Win/win for them and win for us with a more realistic contract process.
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That sounds like a great idea. I know mlbtr does a pretty good job on arb projections.
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Yes I've done some testing... specifically the pitchers arbitration prices are WAY higher than in real life, which leads to higher than in real life contract extension prices (for the non free agent contract offers). This is causing all CPU teams to not have enough money to sign 80 overall players in FA (starting in 2030 in the test that I did).
Is there somewhere that we can report this issue as to bring it to the attention of The Show 26 development team?
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Top right....support...repot a bug...be specific. With Skubal's contract I can possibly understand why arb prices for SP being higher, because actually he could have gotten even more if he would have asked for it, but if it's limiting even singing FA minor leaguers in future year to fill out the 93 man limit, this is definitely a problem.
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Yes I've done some testing... specifically the pitchers arbitration prices are WAY higher than in real life, which leads to higher than in real life contract extension prices (for the non free agent contract offers). This is causing all CPU teams to not have enough money to sign 80 overall players in FA (starting in 2030 in the test that I did).
Is there somewhere that we can report this issue as to bring it to the attention of The Show 26 development team?
Yes. Top of the screen click on support. Click on MLBTS 26. Click on bug report.
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I reported it on the support channel. Hopefully they can fix it
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I did too earlier. Hoping if more people report then it will be prioritized
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I did as well. Glad others have too! Franchise isn't off to a hot start in '26 with this and the save issues...
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I started a new franchise to test budgets and I used the Mariners again per usual. The budget started at 217M in year one ('26), we made the playoffs on SIM but lost in the divisional round, budget increased for '27 to $244MM. I continued the sim through the '27 season, making the playoffs and going to in the divisional round again, then my budget starting year three was $300MM.... THREE HUNDRED MILLION for the Mariners to start year three.
In real life, the Mariners are running with a player payroll of roughly $165-175MM for 2026. The Mariners increased payroll like $5-10MM after they tore down the roster after the 2018 season including even taking a step back $5-10M for the '22 season, the year after they made the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. To say that the Mariners would increase payroll YoY that much or even to $300MM COMPLETELY ruins any freaking immersion possible.
(Yes, the Mariners were as big of a joke as the MLBTS'26 budget system during some of those 20 years!)
Two problems do not make a right here and I don't give a #$@$ that budgets are massively increasing. Budgets and arbitration are a freaking joke and so completely unbelievable. I'm not sure how someone could legit say they did testing/QA and everything looks good.
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I just ran a test after the patch (4) yesterday. I ran the same test with the Mariners and then did a two year sim with the A's just to see a small market team as well.
Mariners:
Overall budget starts at $217MM in '26 before it spiked drastically to $299MM to start the '27 season. I simmed to start the '28 season and payroll was at $318MM. Mariners are not jumping payroll 50% year over year.
Bryan Woo wants $13.4MM in his first year of Arb then $20.2MM in year 2 ($16.8MM avg) and $26.7MM ($20.1MM avg) for his final year. This is a step in the right direction but he will not jump from $780k (plus the incentives he has earned from rev share) to $13.4MM next year. He then wants $33.5MM on any FA years after that so a 6 year $160MM deal is what it would take. This is well beyond both of the Phillies recent extensions for Sanchez and Jesus Lazardo's new deal and those were FA years, not someone with three years of arb left. Woo will be $7-8MM range next year, not $13.4M. The $13.4MM is probably his second arb year before ending at $20MM range so the game is inflating his arb status by roughly $25MM.
Logan Gilbert wants $27MM for his last arb yesterday despite only a touch under $11MM this year so he wants 150% year over year. He maintained that range and wanted $29MM for any FA years I tried to add. The FA years seem right but the arb year still is massively over inflated. He will be $17-18MM range with the game over inflating by about $8MM.
George Kirby wants a $20.1MM arb for '27 and he just signed for $6.55MM which was a $2.25MM range. They are now projecting him to go up roughly 200% when Kirby will be right around Gilbert at $11-12MM range from this year. He has basically copied Gilbert for two years now with super two arb 1, normal arb 1 so not sure why I'd expect his to more than double Gilbert's increase. The game is over inflating by about $8-9MM.
Gabe Spier signed for $2.125MM this year in his second year of arb (5th year of service time) and would probably be in the $5MM range next year for his final arbitration. The game has him wanted $8MM over a 300% year over year improvement. The game is over inflating him by $3MM range.
That is roughly $25MM that the game is over inflating for next years Mariners arbitration cases alone.
All players wanted roughly the same numbers in spring, trade deadline, and in the offseason/arb window
The A's:
Overall budget starts at $150MM for '26 before spiking to $210MM in '27 and then $224MM in '28. I doubt the A's, who are spending far more than they ever have currently, will be increasing their payroll another 50% year of year.
New CBA - Yes, the new CBA could bring in more money for teams but currently TV deals rolling into MLB have suggested they are losing revenue on TV deals vs their past networks. They could also have a salary cap or salary floor. They could also change from 6 years of controlled service time to 5. But none of this is known or set so I'm not willing to give MLBTS the benefit of the doubt that they are just trying to factor in a future CBA. They do not know any details on where that'll land so why would they just randomly project massive increase for the '27 year? That would just be them making stuff up. Common sense would be to maintain a normal budget with traditional increases until they actually learn the change(s).
This is just a broken system, not them trying to be forward thinkers.
